Hurricane Milton Arrival: Current Path Shows Landfall Time Update

Hurricane Milton is currently on track to make landfall in western Florida sometime Wednesday evening, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm, which was once again raised to a Category 5 hurricane Tuesday afternoon, is expected to hit the Tampa Bay region head-on, bringing with it devastating storm surges and high winds to some areas still reeling from Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida’s Big Bend region on September 26 as a Category 4.
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, Milton was located around 480 miles southwest of Tampa and sustaining wind speeds of up to 165 miles per hour, according to the NHC.
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The NHC has been tracking Milton’s path for several days and predicted over the weekend that the storm could make landfall as early as Wednesday afternoon. As the storm approaches, however, that timeline has been pushed back.
In an update Monday at 5 a.m. ET, the NHC predicted that Milton’s eye would be over central Florida around 2 a.m. Thursday, meaning that it would make landfall near Tampa sometime Wednesday evening.
Later that same day, in an update published at 11 p.m. ET, forecasters said that Milton could hit around 8 p.m. Wednesday.
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By Tuesday afternoon, that timeline was again pushed back. Forecasters at the NHC now predict Milton will make contact in the Tampa Bay region around 2 a.m. ET Thursday. The eye of the storm will travel across central Florida and reach its eastern coast by 2 p.m. Thursday.
“On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday,” read the NHC said.
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Milton’s impacts could be felt much sooner than that in the Sunshine State. The NHC predicts that tropic-storm-force winds could be felt along Florida’s west coast starting at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Forecasters also predict that the peak storm surge around Tampa Bay could reach 10 to 15 feet high. In the surrounding areas north and south of Milton’s direct bath, storm surges could reach up to 10 feet high.
“Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night,” the NHC said in its latest update.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Ferrick told Newsweek via email Wednesday that forecasters “expect conditions along the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, to deteriorate during the day Wednesday.”
“The worst of the life-threatening conditions along the west coast of Florida, in terms of storm surge and destructive winds, will likely be from Wednesday evening into the early morning hours of Thursday,” Ferrick added.
The storm is also expected to double in size as it continues to approach western Florida over the next few days. National Weather Service meteorologist Christianne Pearce previously told Newsweek that Milton will begin to transition “right before it reaches the coast,” with the storm growing slightly weaker but growing larger.
“We do expect that Milton will grow in size as it moves toward Florida over the next 24-36 hours,” Ferrick also said via email. “So even though we do anticipate some loss in wind intensity the wind field will likely be more expansive and impact most of the Florida peninsula.”
Update 10/08/24, 6:28 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional comment from Ferrick.